Bitcoin Is Not Ready for a New Bull Trend

MARKET ANALYSES

Samuele Gritti

6/7/2026

After the strong bearish trend that characterised Bitcoin from October 2025, we are today at a key point in its history. A purely technical historical analysis of the chart would suggest touching a resistance level to lean on and reverse, restarting a new bullish market cycle.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/3K0lQPnj/

All data is provided by a single source: Checkonchain

Classic price models provide an initial estimate of a possible premium or discount. In particular, by paying attention to the balanced price and realised price (red line and purple line), we realise how much lower the price could go before institutional investors consider it at the bottom of its contraction possibilities. Despite this, the maximum standard deviations of price extension (MVRV 1.5 and MVRV 2.0) are significantly distant from the current situation; similarly, the Vaulted price shows that a sharp retracement is not on the market's radar.

Limiting oneself to pure chart analysis, as in all fields, is extremely reductive. Below I report the most interesting data derived from the on-chain analysis of the asset post-NFP.

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