Report June 2026

MARKET ANALYSES

Samuele Gritti

7/1/20261 min read

Executive Summary

The month of June 2026 was characterised by a pronounced divergence across geographic regions and asset classes, driven primarily by central banks’ monetary policy decisions and the gradual global macroeconomic slowdown. While US equities continued to benefit from a rally led by the technology sector and artificial intelligence, European markets showed signs of weakness, weighed down by political uncertainty and macroeconomic data that fell short of expectations. On the currency front, analysis of institutional positioning (COT – Commitments of Traders data) revealed marked pressure on the British Pound (GBP) and the Canadian Dollar (CAD), paving the way for contrarian positioning strategies ahead of the summer seasonality.

Equity Markets

With regard to equity markets, the United States confirmed its global leadership, extending its record highs. The S&P 500 index posted a monthly gain of 3.8%, underpinned by the resilience ofb corporate earnings and the concentration of flows into mega-cap stocks. Even more pronounced was the performance of the Nasdaq Composite, which rose 5.2% on the continued strength of the semiconductor and technology services sectors. This momentum was driven by expectations of an imminent monetary easing; although the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at its latest meeting, slightly softer inflation data (with CPI at 2.9% year-on-year) fuelled bets on a first rate cut by the end of the third quarter.

By contrast, European indices posted mixed performance, mostly in negative territory, weighed down by geopolitical risk and a slowdown in manufacturing PMI readings. The Euro Stoxx 50 lost 1.8% over the month, in line with Germany’s DAX 40, which recorded a 1.2% decline. Italy’s FTSE MIB was hit hardest, contracting by 2.1%, weighed down by the banking sector amid a widening spread. This weak sentiment was compounded by the extremely cautious, data-dependent stance adopted by the European Central Bank, which, despite a previous rate cut, tempered investor enthusiasm for the months ahead.

Fixed Income Markets

On the fixed income front, the market navigated complex dynamics, pricing in diverging scenarios across economic regions. In the United States, yields stabilised, with the 10-year Treasury falling from 4.45% to 4.28%, reflecting both safe-haven demand and a recalibration of expectations towards a less restrictive Fed over the medium term.

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